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Prediction for CME (2022-12-24T08:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-24T08:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22972/-1
CME Note: A fast and faint loop-like eruption seen to the south and west in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The likely source is a point sourced eruption from AR3169 (N19W19). The CME appears to be much wider in running difference imagery than it appears in white light imagery or coronal/EUV imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-28T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/22974/1
Model Inputs:
2022-12-24T08:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=37.0, Lat.=-37.0, Speed=703.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2022-12-24T13:25Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-12-28T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-12-27T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221224_132500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.70 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2022-12-24T18:18Z

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